This week kicks off with robust meltemi winds sweeping across the Aegean Sea, reaching up to 7 Beaufort in certain areas. Scattered showers are anticipated in the mountainous regions of the mainland, particularly during midday and afternoon. Temperatures are expected to remain relatively stable in the upcoming days. These strong northerly winds will continue until Wednesday and will begin to subside from Thursday onwards.
High Fire Risk in Four Regions
The Fire Risk Forecast Map from the General Secretariat for Civil Protection indicates a very high fire danger (risk category 4) for Monday in various parts of the country. Areas identified at very high risk include Heraklion, Lassithi, Samos, and Ikaria. Additionally, several regions are under a high fire risk warning (risk category 3), which includes southern Evia, Chania, Rethymno, the Dodecanese, the Cyclades, Lesvos, Chios, and Psara. These warnings reflect dry weather conditions and strong winds, heightening the chances of wildfires.
July 2025 Long-Term Temperature Outlook: Warmer Than Average
Long-term forecasts released in June predict that July 2025 is likely to be warmer than average across Southeastern Europe, including Greece. Assessments from 400 climate model scenarios indicate that 93 percent predict a rise in monthly average temperatures above normal (based on the 1993–2016 reference period). There’s a 42 percent chance of temperatures deviating between +0 and +1°C, a 41 percent chance for a deviation between +1 and +2°C, and a 10 percent chance of exceeding +2°C. Only 7 percent of scenarios predict a minor cooling.
The average across all scenarios suggests an increase of about +1.04°C for the region. These predictions stem from eight international climate centers—including ECMWF (Europe), UKMO (United Kingdom), Meteo-France (France), JMA (Japan), NCEP (United States), DWD (Germany), CMCC (Italy), and BOM (Australia)—coordinated by the European Commission’s Copernicus Climate Change Service. It’s important to note that while these forecasts help indicate seasonal trends, they entail some uncertainty and should not be seen as precise daily predictions.
Forecast Accuracy Review: May 2025
In May 2025, Southeastern Europe encountered slightly cooler conditions than expected. The average temperature deviation was –0.20°C, in contrast to the +1.03°C deviation projected in April. This result aligned with the fourth most likely forecast range, with a 14 percent probability. This highlights the challenges and variability associated with long-term forecasts, especially during months with transitional weather patterns.
Daily Weather Summary
Monday, June 16:
Expect mostly clear weather across the board, with localized showers and thunderstorms likely in mountainous areas during the midday and afternoon. Northern winds in the Aegean will blow at intensities of 6 to 7 Beaufort, while lighter northwest winds of 3 to 4 Beaufort will be present in the Ionian Sea. Regional temperatures will range from 12 to 33 degrees Celsius. Athens is forecasted to have clear conditions with temperatures ranging from 23 to 31°C, while Thessaloniki will experience similar weather with highs around 30°C.
Tuesday, June 17:
The forecast indicates clear skies for most regions. Some cloud cover is expected to develop in the western and northern mainland by afternoon, potentially leading to light rain and isolated thunderstorms in mountainous locations. Winds will remain strong in the Aegean at 6 to 7 Beaufort from the north, while the Ionian will have lighter, variable winds. Temperatures will see a slight increase, with highs reaching up to 34°C in parts of the mainland and the Ionian region.
Wednesday, June 18:
Expect generally clear weather, with occasional cloud cover in the west and northern mainland during the afternoon. Localized rain is possible in the northwest, along with isolated thunderstorms in mountainous areas. Northerly winds will persist in the east, with the Aegean experiencing gusts up to 6 Beaufort. No significant temperature changes are anticipated.
Thursday, June 19:
The day will begin with mostly clear skies. By midday, cloud formations are expected over mainland areas, potentially leading to local rainfall in mountainous regions and isolated thunderstorms in the north. Conditions are projected to improve as the day progresses. Winds will ease slightly, shifting to 3 to 4 Beaufort westerly winds in the west, and 4 to 5 Beaufort northerly winds in the Aegean. Temperatures will rise modestly.
Friday, June 20:
Clear conditions will dominate much of the day. By midday, clouds may develop over the mainland and Evia, bringing localized rain and sporadic thunderstorms, primarily in mountainous regions. These events are expected to subside in the evening, especially in the north. Visibility may be reduced in western regions during the early morning hours. Winds will be variable at 3 to 4 Beaufort, with northerly winds reaching up to 5 Beaufort in the Aegean. Temperatures will remain generally stable.
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