In early April, Donald Trump announced his “Liberation Day” plan from the White House garden, marking a significant moment filled with uncertainty and concern. This announcement cast a shadow of instability and suggested potential economic ramifications, both domestically and internationally. The US President, who is open about his commercial inclinations, thrives on the competitive dynamics of the economy. However, his position in the Oval Office may limit his enjoyment of the exhilarating nature of negotiation.
Trump’s approach, which essentially initiated a trade war with China, appears to be paving the way he envisioned from the outset. With a keen understanding of the Chinese economy and its strategies over the past 15 years, he sought to confront his country’s significant rival directly. While Trump has yet to achieve victory, his actions have undeniably caused considerable upheaval both globally and across the Americas. The challenge lies in engaging an adversary that prefers indirect tactics in its conflicts.
Though Trump hasn’t transformed into a master diplomat or strategist, it’s crucial to acknowledge his successes despite widespread criticism. The recent US-China bilateral meeting in Switzerland was made possible by Trump’s bold maneuvers, including imposing tariffs exceeding 140% that shook the East.
While it’s early in the marathon between the world’s two largest economies, the fact that they are engaging in meaningful dialogue is a clear achievement for the American President. Regardless of the discussions’ outcomes, both sides are recognizing the necessity of engagement. Although China may not emerge entirely “defeated,” it desperately requires access to the American market, but seems hesitant to enter into extensive discussions with the US for the long-term. Beijing has shown agility in response to these developments, indicating its readiness. Despite their preparations, the negotiation is undoubtedly taking place under pressure from the US and around the globe.
Another strategic decision by Trump is the team sent to Switzerland to draft the negotiating framework for a potential agreement between the US and China. This time, the White House has ensured they are fully prepared, assembling a team of skilled negotiators and diplomats. Other than vague remarks about “a deal with China,” Trump has been notably secretive about the discussions that occurred behind closed doors, which is unusual for him, especially compared to how openly he announced the deal with the UK shortly thereafter.
Despite his bold persona, Trump recognizes that the Chinese operate differently, and the stakes are significant. If negotiations progress favorably, he will capitalize on this opportunity and present it as a triumph, ideally standing alongside the President of China. Conversely, if the demands from the US are not fully met, he will still highlight the significance of having secured a Chinese signature on an interstate trade agreement, emphasizing its importance rather than framing it negatively.
For Trump, securing points against China is vital for various personal, political, and geostrategic reasons. Achieving consensus on a framework between the two most powerful nations is neither easy nor straightforward. A victory for Trump, particularly highlighted in his second term, might lead to a shift in global dynamics, steering away from confrontation. Should there be tangible agreements, it’s likely that many nations will seek to collaborate with Trump on a new trade framework.
Notably, while Trump could not bring an end to the War in Ukraine in his first 100 days in office or establish peace in the Middle East, he may succeed where his predecessors struggled for years within just under 40 days.
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