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Hello everyone. Let’s begin with yesterday’s court ruling on the tragedy in Mati, where 104 lives were lost. The decision found no criminal responsibility for any political figures involved, as no intent was established. Consequently, all politicians connected to the incident were acquitted under the law. In contrast, the opposition, particularly SYRIZA, is demanding prison sentences for everyone from Mitsotakis down to the other politicians linked to the Tempi case. A question arises: did you notice any statements from any party or organization regarding the Mati ruling yesterday? Not that there needs to be, just an observation. This may offer some insight into why the opposition’s approval ratings are so low.
Basketball…
- It’s uncertain if there will be any changes today, but the government is adamant that if the Aggelopoulos brothers fail to attend a meeting with Vroutsis, accompanied by Giannakopoulos, the league will face permanent suspension. Personally, I’m puzzled as to why the law isn’t being enforced with strict penalties in these matters, as it is in football, and why any party is obligated to meet a direct competitor. In well-governed Western nations, laws and courts are the norm. It seems likely that both parties will end up in court as they have already initiated lawsuits against each other. In a democracy, one must adhere to the law, but also has the right to decline meeting anyone perceived as a threat. That’s all I’ll mention.
Livanios’ Presentation
- Today at 11:00 am, Theodoros Livanios will present the findings from the public sector evaluation conducted through May to the Prime Minister. The results are intriguing, revealing that citizens are relatively satisfied with digital government services but express significant frustration with in-person services, such as those at urban planning offices or the Land Registry, and municipal services fare no better regarding negative feedback.
Kyranakis in Brussels
- While he’s currently focused on the Highway Code and taxi regulations, Kyranakis is also juggling the crucial railway system issue. A bill recently introduced in the Cabinet will soon be submitted to Parliament for a vote, and it will be presented in Brussels this upcoming Friday. There, he is set to meet with the new leadership of the European Union Agency for Railways and Transport Commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas.
Friday the 13th…
- June 13 has been tentatively marked on the parliamentary calendar for the debate and vote on proposals to establish a pre-investigation committee for the Tempi case. For context, so far, the New Democracy (ND) parliamentary group has proposed investigating only former Transport Minister K. Karamanlis for the minor offense of breach of duty, while PASOK is calling for felony charges against Karamanlis, Spirtzis, and six deputy ministers. A similar proposal from SYRIZA MPs and “homeless” Kasselakistas is expected today, which may even include the Prime Minister in the indictment.
Possible Scenarios
- Two important constitutional points to clarify for those who may not be aware:
First, establishing a pre-investigation committee requires at least 151 votes in favor. Thus, only the ND proposal has a realistic chance of leading to further investigation. The parliamentary majority indicates it sees only weak signs of misdemeanors and will back escalating charges only on the recommendation of the Judicial Council.
Second, if a proposal for charges is rejected by the full assembly, the case is permanently closed. In this framework, it wouldn’t be surprising for the government majority to propose withdrawing the opposition’s measures, thereby allowing for the possibility of reviving felony charges if recommended by senior judges. Yet, if the opposition insists, on June 13, Parliament may set up nine ballot boxes, one for each person implicated.
Gerapetritis and the Crucial Relationship with Egypt
- Foreign Minister Giorgos Gerapetritis is expected in Cairo today for discussions with Egyptian officials regarding the future of Saint Catherine’s Monastery in Sinai. His personal visit, instead of sending a delegation led by Deputy Minister Alexandra Papadopoulou, is reportedly in response to the Sisi government’s preference for a political solution rather than a technical one. Diplomatic sources indicate Greece agreed to this approach due to the vital importance of its relations with Egypt.
The Best Foreign Minister Ever
- Since we’re on the topic of foreign affairs, here’s an amusing anecdote from the halls of Parliament. As Minister Gerapetritis exited, Minister Georgiadis entered, and their chance encounter drew attention. After exchanging pleasantries, Adonis shouted to the press corps, “The best Foreign Minister ever!” It seems he didn’t intend for Gerapetritis to hear that.
No Agreement on DELTA
- The negotiations led by Spyros Theodoropoulos regarding the acquisition of the dairy company DELTA ultimately reached an impasse. The two parties were around €100 million apart, making it difficult to reconcile differences. Consequently, DELTA remains available for sale, with CVC seeking €300 million. However, it’s not entirely out of the question that we may see a renewed round of negotiations between Theodoropoulos and CVC in the future.
Mitsotakis’ Visit to Volos and Trump’s Tariffs
- On Thursday, Kyriakos Mitsotakis will visit Volos to tour Metlen’s defense equipment facilities, which are gearing up for a significant entry into the defense sector. Five factories at various stages of development (some completed, some ongoing) will participate in five armament projects, as Evangelos Mytilineos highlighted at yesterday’s general meeting. He noted, “The Prime Minister’s visit signals the government’s serious intention to support the defense industry this time.” His comments come amid Europe’s discussions regarding arms and cooperation between European companies. During the meeting, Metlen’s chief, in a candid moment, commented on uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies: “For the first time in years of chairing meetings, I can’t provide an answer. I have no idea how President Trump will act tomorrow. Tariffs are subject to sudden changes. Can I make a reliable forecast?”
GEK TERNA’s Growing Reserves
- The GEK TERNA group has demonstrated impressive liquidity, nearing €1.5 billion in cash reserves by the end of the first quarter. Analysts predict that this figure will continue to grow throughout the year, bolstered by €60 million from the New Attiki Odos concession and approximately €80 million from Latsco for a 10% stake in the concession. Additional financing is anticipated from a deal between HERON and NRG (Motor Oil). Furthermore, construction operations are expected to contribute positively to its finances, with strong profitability forecasted for this year. Yesterday, GEK TERNA’s stock closed at €19.29, and AXIA has reiterated its target price of €27.40, following Wood’s earlier prediction of €27 three months ago.
Autohellas Faces a Decline: -7% Drop and 86% Plunge in Profits
- Autohellas’ first-quarter performance, historically its weakest season, was poorly received by the market, resulting in a 7% drop in stock value. What did the financial reports show? An alarming 86% fall in profits stood out, justifying the market’s reaction. However, this was largely due to the absence of extraordinary gains that had inflated profits during the same period in 2024, stemming from interest rate swap contract closures. Despite this, sales were stable, with car rental revenue in Greece rising by 9.6% due to both short-term and long-term rentals. Short-term rental demand increased even in this typically slow quarter, attributed to the uptick in tourism. Autohellas management predicts this momentum will continue, positively influencing short-term rental demand. The long-term leases also saw a significant surge in new vehicle deliveries, indicating increased demand and new contract signings. Conversely, car trading in Greece faced a 3.7% decline due to an overall market downturn and intensifying competition from new manufacturers, mainly from China.
Astir: Revenue of €127.62M and Profits of €34.39M
- The remarkable sales in real estate completed in 2023 significantly boosted revenues and profits that year, highlighting a decline in performance for Astir Palace Vouliagmeni in 2024 per the recently released financial statements. Revenue fell to €127.62 million in 2024, down from €295.37 million in 2023, with operating profits decreasing to €34.39 million from €177.1 million. Nevertheless, the new management under shipowner G. Prokopiou indicated that the hotel unit (i.e., Four Seasons) and the food and beverage division experienced an 8.27% performance increase in 2024. Specifically, accommodation revenue in 2024 reached €82.42 million, compared to €76.63 million in 2023, while F&B revenue rose to €36.31 million from €33.93 million. Revenue from land sales in 2024? Zero, compared to €177.5 million in 2023. Other revenues reached €8.89 million, up from €7.3 million in 2023. This increase mainly stemmed from wellness services, spa offerings, and cancellation fees. For the current year, management remains optimistic, confident in its market-leading position and strategic aims for enhancing operational and financial performance through 2025.
Proodeftiki: Echoes of Sofokleous in 1999
- For the second consecutive day, Proodeftiki’s stock achieved the maximum limit-up (+29.75%), breaking free from “Surveillance” status to return to the Main Stock Market. Proodeftiki is one of those companies shrouded in mystery regarding its listing’s justification. Its survival relies on a funding deal with LDA Capital Limited for up to €20 million through phased private placements over three years. According to financial data, Proodeftiki improved slightly, reporting €223,127 in group revenue and an EBITDA of -€64,000 in 2024. However, management has yet to present a credible development plan or new initiatives justifying its €9.9 million valuation. The financial statements indicate that “the management’s goal, after numerous years, is for the Company to become a reliable entity for domestic and foreign financial institutions, aiming to enhance its creditworthiness for accelerating strategic plans.” Since business activities aren’t expanding rapidly, some believe Proodeftiki serves primarily as a vehicle for another company’s listing. Many have previously suffered losses from such rumors—from those who pretend to know more than they actually do.
Stock Exchange: Sideways Movement with Visible Optimism
- Current data indicates that dividend cuts from National Bank and Piraeus Bank would likely weigh down the General Index by -0.65%. This expectation was confirmed when the index fell to 1810.46 points (-0.63%) and struggled to regain its upward momentum throughout the afternoon. By 5 PM, it closed at 1818.67 points (-0.18%), but after the auction session, it rebounded to 1824.48 points (+0.14%). Trading volume was solid at €181.15 million, with block trades amounting to €26.89 million. The Alumil placement was significant, with 11 blocks totaling approximately €8 million. Banks didn’t support the index’s positive close—stocks like Coca Cola HBC (+0.91%) at €46.56, OTE (+0.98%) at €17.50, PPC (+1.2%) at €13.44, and particularly AKTOR (+4.55%) at €5.52 contributed positively. Aegean rebounded to €13.06 with a +2.37% gain. Jumbo rose +1.42% to €28.60, while Elvalhalcor (€2.35), Ellaktor (€1.29), EYDAP, and Motor Oil all observed gains exceeding 1%.
Beyond Trump Tariffs: Article 899 Also Looms
- While the headlines and markets focus on the “Trump tariffs” negotiations, another impending issue lurks under the radar: Article 899 of the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” currently debated in the U.S. Senate. This article grants the Secretary of the Treasury the authority to impose “retaliatory taxes” on American investments from countries imposing “unfair taxes” on U.S. firms. The Secretary would present quarterly reports to Congress identifying countries with “unrealistic and biased” tax practices. A classic illustration of such a tax would be the EU’s digital services tax. Based on the Treasury’s report, a potential 5% surcharge could be applied to investments from such countries in the U.S., with the rate possibly escalating to 20%. If Article 899 becomes law, many foreign investments in the U.S. might stall, fundamentally altering the outlook for U.S. bonds and stocks. Due to the frequent revisions of the “unfair tax” list, few foreign investors may want to face the heightened risk from sudden political changes.
AI in Market Surveillance
- In June 2020, a major scandal unveiled at the German Stock Exchange when payments firm Wirecard “lost” nearly $2 billion, leading COO Jan Marsalek to flee, eventually acquiring a Russian passport under a new identity. Speculation emerged that he was acting under Russian intelligence guidance. This incident, which cost €28 billion in total, led to criticism directed at Germany’s financial watchdog, BaFin, for its failure to detect the fraud. In response, BaFin has now implemented AI systems to identify “dark financiers” attempting to manipulate the market. Their algorithms flag “suspicious patterns” in transactions and the likelihood of unethical behavior. Having missed the €28 billion fraud at Wirecard, BaFin is clearly taking no chances this time.
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