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Hi there! I’m not sure if the adage “markets always tell the truth” holds weight these days, but let’s hope it rings true. Just yesterday, global stock markets appeared to brush off the recent ceasefire in the Middle East. In our current era, influenced greatly by Trump’s actions, things are moving rapidly yet quite clumsily. If you’re also curious about the reasons behind these events, such as the status of Iran’s nuclear capabilities, I can’t say for certain. The Iranian regime seems stable for now, but time will tell.
Regarding Kimberly…
– Speaking of international and Greek affairs, a rumor emerged yesterday claiming that Kimberly would not be taking up her role as U.S. Ambassador to Greece. This is entirely untrue, according to my source overseas. The delays are simply due to the lengthy approval process for U.S. ambassadors. As my source pointed out, “Tsounis took a full year to arrive in Athens after Biden was elected.”
Strength in NATO
– K.M., who arrived at the NATO Summit yesterday alongside Gerapetritis, Dendias, and associates from the Maximos Mansion, is armed with a significant argument at today’s Hague Summit. Greece doesn’t need to stretch itself too thin to boost its contribution to NATO; it’s already among the “hard core” member countries, spending nearly 3% of its GDP on defense. This percentage will gradually increase thanks to a loophole and a massive €25 billion arms plan set to unfold over the next 12 years. Despite Erdogan’s efforts to create a rift, being a reliable partner in this case has its advantages, as it shields Greece from becoming a target of global powers.
Case file update…
– This past Tuesday, the OPEKEPE case file was transferred from the Supreme Court to the Ministry of Justice, and it’s anticipated to be made public in Parliament today. In recent times, there’s been a lot of speculation circulating about its contents. From what I gather, those who have had a glimpse of the file suggest that evidence against Voridis and Avgenakis is either nonexistent or quite flimsy. Once MPs gain access to the file, I suspect the interest will shift from the two ministers to the wiretapped conversations between OPEKEPE’s leadership and numerous MPs. It’s noteworthy that farmers and livestock breeders represent around 750,000 families and an equal number of votes.
PASOK under fire
– The rumor regarding MPs allegedly seeking prioritization for their constituents from OPEKEPE funds has stirred considerable unrest within PASOK. Charilaou Trikoupi has four MPs representing Crete — a region currently under scrutiny by European prosecutors — and they are wary that the case file may confirm these rumors. However, they argue that parliamentary interventions for timely payments to legitimate beneficiaries don’t raise any political or legal flags. They make a valid point, yet if it turns out that undue pressure was applied to expedite suspicious tax ID processing, there could be serious repercussions, including significant consequences for party leadership.
… Voridis and the tax IDs
– Concurrently, Voridis’ team is preparing a counter-dossier in response to various recent allegations against him. For instance, during his tenure at the Ministry of Rural Development, 3,500 “suspicious” tax IDs were flagged for investigation concerning EU fund misuse. As for the technical solution in question, it has reportedly been in effect since 2015, was known to the EU, and has legal support that has helped retain EU subsidies for thousands of livestock farmers. The need for this solution arose from concerns about losing 9 million stremmas of eligible grazing land and the incomplete Grazing Management Plans (D.S.V.). Although the D.S.V. framework was established in 2015, it wasn’t activated until 2020 when Voridis initiated the necessary contracts so that regional bodies could commence the corresponding tenders. To date, no Grazing Management Plans have been finalized, but that’s a different political issue.
Turbulence ahead
– Concerns have arisen within M.M. and the Ministry of Infrastructure following leaks from the management of Elliniko Metro regarding AVAX and Line 4. I can’t recall a similar incident. This kind of extraneous tension does nothing to help the government’s goal of fostering a calm environment for large projects, ensuring they stay on track and resources aren’t squandered.
The DEI-OTE showdown
– DEI’s foray into telecommunications, particularly in the dynamic FTTH (fiber to the home) segment, not only revitalized a stagnant market but also sparked tensions among competitors. The new entrant primarily threatens the longstanding leader, OTE, as the company with the highest market share is likely to face the greatest customer loss. The brewing conflict, or “beef,” is becoming increasingly apparent, with a significant focus on how OTE will respond. During OTE’s general assembly two days ago, shareholders inquired about OTE’s strategy in light of DEI’s aggressive pricing. Kostas Nempis stated that OTE respects its competitors but does not fear them. Informally, OTE officials mentioned that the company has robust defenses since over 70% of its customers are on bundled packages, and they intend to provide even more offers through their commercial strategies. OTE also appears skeptical about DEI’s pricing, which is reported to be 50-60% lower than the competition, and they doubt its sustainability. Meanwhile, DEI claims that their competitively priced internet packages starting at €17.90 are already making waves and pressuring other firms to lower prices. They anticipate rapid expansion of DEI’s Fiber Grid, particularly since it’s primarily aerial, allowing for quicker deployment compared to underground networks. They also plan to offer bundled electricity and internet packages soon.
Celebrated Greek Day in Paris — Banking stocks reach 2015 highs
– The market reflected a positive atmosphere during yesterday’s session, which was palpable at the Greek Day event held by BNP in Paris. With participation from the four major systemic banks and the Greek Debt Management Office, analysts expressed optimism regarding reduced geopolitical risks. Despite current high prices, Greece is perceived as an opportunity for investment considering growth potential and new revenue streams for banks through acquisitions. Analysts focused mainly on dividend policies and credit expansion rather than macroeconomic concerns. Notable investors present included Citadel, Caisse des Dépôts, BNP, AXIOM, HSBC, Canada Pension Plan, and Rothschild. This enthusiasm for banking stocks manifested on the stock board, with the sector index closing at a ten-year high, marking a +51.3% annual return. It started the year at 1,286 points and is now at 1,945 points. It hasn’t reached a higher close since November 19, 2015. Reflecting this upward trend, three of the four systemic banks showed significant gains: National Bank surpassed €11 for the first time since November 27, 2015; Eurobank closed at €2.877, its highest since November 9 of the same year; and Alpha Bank nearly hit €3, ending its day at its highest point since November 24, 2015. Piraeus Bank may have followed suit had it not been for a capital return of €0.298 per share. Year-to-date, Alpha Bank has increased by +84.9%, followed by Piraeus Bank at +52.1%, NBG at +47.3%, and Eurobank at +29%. Market capitalizations for Eurobank and NBG have exceeded €10 billion each, while both Piraeus and Alpha Bank surpass €7 billion. Collectively, these six bank stocks represent a market capitalization of approximately €40.77 billion, accounting for roughly 32% of the overall Athens Stock Exchange capitalization.
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