-Hello, as you might expect, the American strike on Iran is dominating global news, leaving concern over Middle Eastern developments clearly evident. Consequently, other domestic issues are taking a back seat. In Athens, anxiety surrounding these events is palpable. Though Trump hinted at a potential 15-day negotiation window with his remarks on Friday, he ultimately acted swiftly with the strike. Predicting international developments is challenging, and we will all be learning about them in real-time, just like the rest of the world. Mitsotakis has been in his office since yesterday afternoon, and the Government Council for Foreign Affairs and Defense (KYSEA) convened later that day to follow protocol. Let’s hope the escalating tensions don’t negatively impact the crucial tourist season, particularly as Greece is situated close to Israel on the map for American visitors.
OPEKEPE–Parliament
-Domestically, the issue expected to dominate the political agenda before the American strike was the file from the European Public Prosecutor’s Office concerning the OPEKEPE scandal, which is set to be presented to Parliament today or tomorrow. Government sources familiar with the situation indicate that while there is evidence of improper handling of European funds designated for farmers and livestock breeders, two key points emerge: First, there is no indication of kickbacks to political figures from the refunds; currently, no officials have been implicated. In simpler terms, no ministers or political figures have been found to have personally benefited from granting significant subsidies to agricultural businesses or individuals, which reduces the political stakes of the case. Second, the lawful wiretaps conducted by the police’s surveillance unit—ordered by European prosecutors—revealed extensive discussions about favoritism in subsidies among not only New Democracy MPs but also PASOK members, with at least one from Crete. Lastly, two credible sources familiar with the legal intricacies suggest that extracting incriminating evidence against ministers, particularly the key figure, Voridis, may be difficult due to his ongoing active status. A clearer picture will only emerge once the file is submitted to Parliament and examined by all.
What will M.M do, and how will the parties respond?
-The pressing question is whether the government will follow the Karamanlis–Triantopoulou model by referring political figures to a natural judge. Additionally, it will be interesting to see how other parties, particularly PASOK and SYRIZA, react, especially since they may have also been ensnared in the rampant favoritism prevalent during the “we ate it together” era with around 700,000 farmers and livestock breeders involved. I don’t have a definitive answer, as the situation remains unclear. Nevertheless, M.M claims, “During our tenure, lawful wiretaps resulted in the European prosecutors’ case file. One of the whistleblowers regarding OPEKEPE’s mismanagement is now an advisor to M.M, and it was Mitsotakis who delegated the authority for subsidies to the Independent Authority for Public Revenue to resolve these issues once and for all.”
Brussels–The Hague
-Following yesterday’s KYSEA meeting, Gerapetritis headed to Brussels for an emergency meeting with EU foreign ministers. From a European standpoint, there seems to be tacit approval of the U.S. strike, despite efforts for diplomatic solutions, mainly due to concerns over Iran’s nuclear capabilities. After Brussels, Gerapetritis will travel to The Hague, where K.M will arrive on Tuesday afternoon for the NATO summit, which Trump is also expected to attend unless plans change. The primary focus of the summit in the Dutch capital is increasing member states’ defense spending to 5% of GDP (including spending and regional infrastructure), yet the pressing concern now is Iran and the Alliance’s survival strategy, which Trump appears to disregard.
Security measures for the celebration
-Meanwhile, the Athens Concert Hall is set for the annual July 4th celebration organized by the U.S. Embassy this Wednesday. Chargé d’Affaires Maria Olson, who is departing for Cairo at the end of the month, will host the event. However, it appears there will be significantly heightened security measures around the venue compared to previous celebrations, some of which were held in the ambassador’s residence garden.
Piraeus Bank ready today (if markets allow)
-As the saying goes, “I might come in, I might step out, don’t ask me to commit” (A. Remos), that captures the situation with Piraeus Bank. The bank is prepared to issue an AT1 (Additional Tier 1) bond aiming to raise between 300 and 400 million euros. However, developments in the Middle East and U.S. involvement over the weekend have stirred market volatility, influencing Piraeus’s decision on whether to proceed with the bond issue today based on current market conditions. If conditions permit, the intention is to move forward immediately. It’s worth noting that if Piraeus proceeds today, it will be their second market entry in a short period, following their green senior preferred bond issuance of 500 million euros at the end of May. The AT1 issue is part of a broader strategy to enhance capital ratios under MREL (Minimum Requirement for Own Funds and Eligible Liabilities) guidelines.
Aegean gearing up for June 30
-Despite the troubling geopolitical climate, Aegean’s management and advisors are optimistic that the crisis will be brief and are planning to initiate the issuance of a new 250 million euro common bond next week, between June 30 and July 2. Aegean aims to attract Greek savers, offering an investment option with double the yield of government treasury bills, taxed at a lower rate of 5% instead of 15% like dividends. This new 7-year bond will be issued a year earlier than the prior 7-year bond of 200 million euros and is backed by the Group’s strong cash reserves, which totaled over 796.1 million euros at the end of Q1 2025.
Alpha Bank poised to acquire property at 41 Stadiou Street
-Alpha Bank appears close to establishing the largest banking campus in Athens. Reports indicate that ownership of the building at 41 Stadiou Street, currently housing National Bank services (which are in the process of relocating), is likely transferring to Alpha Bank. If this acquisition occurs, along with renovations to its headquarters at the corner of Stadiou and Pesmazoglou and the other buildings in the block that have gradually come under Alpha’s ownership (including Ionian and Commercial Bank), the bank’s operational core will be based in the area bordered by Panepistimiou, Pesmazoglou, Stadiou, and about halfway down Korai.
Banks in Paris to gauge investor sentiment
-Tomorrow, all four major systemic banks—Piraeus, National, Alpha Bank, and Eurobank—will participate in BNP Paribas’ investor roadshow in Paris, alongside representatives from various Greek listed companies. This event garners attention from significant international investment funds and institutional investors. However, it coincides with heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and U.S. involvement, leading to increased uncertainty and volatility. Regardless, BNP’s Paris roadshow (Greek Day) will serve as a “trial of intentions” for investors, assessing if there remains active interest in Greek assets.
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