Greece’s tourism sector shows promising signs for 2025, maintaining its momentum despite a backdrop of significant uncertainty.
A recent report from the Economic Analysis Division of the National Bank of Greece highlights that the sector’s performance is trending upward, with a 10% increase in air arrivals during the first four months of the year and a 4% rise in scheduled air seats for the May to October period.
Optimism is bolstered by improved hotel expectations. The future activity index exceeds that of competitors in the Mediterranean (January–April: 45 points, notably surpassing the long-term average). Employment is also on the rise, with 27,000 net hires recorded in the first quarter.
Small and medium-sized hotels (SMEs) anticipate a 5% increase in arrivals for 2025, following a 10% rise in 2024. It is projected that Greek tourism may achieve a growth rate of 3%-5% in 2025, in line with global tourism trends, continuing its positive trajectory despite a temporary setback caused by seismic activity in the Cyclades in February.
The NBG report notes that while these expectations are promising, there is a level of uncertainty due to international geopolitical and economic factors that may influence travel spending. For instance, consumer confidence in key European markets (France, Germany, UK, Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands) is currently five points below the long-term average. Overall, Greek tourism has seen a remarkable growth of 63% from 2013 to 2024, and the focus is now shifting from merely setting records to developing a sustainable growth model.
Significance of Long-Haul Markets
Central to the medium-term strategy is Greece’s focus on attracting tourists from long-haul markets such as the USA and China. A well-coordinated strategy aimed at these distant markets is expected to help Greece boost arrivals and shift towards a tourism model characterized by lower seasonality and increased spending per visitor, capitalizing on the unique qualities of long-haul markets.
Recent winter trends include:
- A continued decrease in arrival seasonality (+9% annually vs. +6% in summer 2024),
- An increase in Greece’s share of the Mediterranean market (growing from 2.4% in winter 2024 to 2.5%),
- A confirmation of positive trends in source markets.
Notably, arrivals from the USA surged by 33%, accounting for a fifth of the overall growth. The U.S. market is distinguished by:
- A favorable seasonality profile, with half of visitors arriving outside of summer (compared to one-third from other markets),
- Higher spending per arrival, which doubled in comparison to other markets and rose by 19% in real terms during winter 2025, compensating for a 5% decline in major European markets (France, Germany, and the UK).
Enhancement of Air Connections
These projections are supported by strengthened air connections with long-haul markets. Direct and indirect flights to the U.S. are set to rise to nearly 100 flights per week in summer 2025—almost double pre-pandemic levels—while connections to China are expected to increase to about 12 flights per week, tripling previous numbers. Introducing new departure points from China not only outperforms 2019 figures but also strategically positions Greek tourism to benefit from the anticipated growth in Asian travelers to Europe over the next decade.
Resilience of Established Tourist Destinations
As tourism demands evolve from emerging markets, the report assesses how individual destinations are adapting to current challenges. A recent sector survey by the National Bank, conducted for the third consecutive year with 200 hotel SMEs, indicates a “two-speed” landscape, with more established destinations showing increased adaptability.
Mature tourist destinations like the Aegean and Halkidiki exhibit stronger resilience. While they acknowledge the substantial pressure from global circumstances (79% vs. 91% overall), they maintain a more optimistic outlook, outperforming in future demand indicators (64 points compared to 38) and growth ambitions (70% targeting growth vs. 49%).
This advantage ties back to strategic investments made over the past three years, which have focused on expansion. These SMEs are noted for:
- Higher investment activity (70% vs. 58% in the sector),
- A larger portion of sales dedicated to investments (21% vs. 16%),
- Greater emphasis on enhancing resilience, with 31% looking to scale up and 15% pursuing partnerships (clusters), compared to just 11% and 4% among other SMEs.
Additionally, despite previous successes in investments, these SMEs recognize the need for further future investment. Specifically, 34% acknowledged that their implemented investments fell short of requirements (compared to 10% in other areas), citing delays in execution as a critical factor (22%).
Adapting to New Tourism Trends is Crucial
Investment in mature destinations extends beyond scaling operations; it also prepares businesses for shifting consumer trends in tourism.
Greek hotel SMEs are becoming increasingly aware of rising customer interests in:
- Digital services (72%),
- Local experiences (61%) and products (59%),
- Environmental sustainability of accommodations (49%).
Mature region hotel SMEs have taken proactive steps to meet these preferences over the past two years, as evidenced by:
- 59% implementing digital marketing initiatives (compared to 36% elsewhere),
- 49% collaborating with local businesses (versus 28%),
- Resulting in a more enriching tourist experience infused with local elements (nature, gastronomy, culture),
- 54% adopting energy efficiency improvements (compared to 25% in other regions).
As global tourism continues to evolve with changing traveler preferences and emerging markets, disparities in investment intensity are widening the gap between established and new tourist destinations.
The Changing Profile of the Modern Tourist
Today’s traveler seeks authentic experiences and sustainable practices. Businesses that effectively embrace these preferences are likely to play a pivotal role in shaping Greece’s new tourism development model.
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