A Greece poised for accelerated growth amid uncertain international conditions is highlighted in the latest Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) “Economic Outlook” report released today.
The forecast indicates that the Greek economy will grow steadily, with an expected 2% growth in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026.
These projections are notably higher than those for the Eurozone (0.8% in 2024, 1.0% in 2025, and 1.2% in 2026) and the wider OECD nations (1.8% in 2024, 1.4% in 2025, and 1.5% in 2026). This suggests that while Greece faces external risks, such as trade tariffs and global slowdowns, it is managing to remain resilient.
On the domestic front, Greece showcases a robust recovery. However, it must contend with ongoing inflation challenges, a troubled labor market, productivity issues, and the urgent need for structural reforms backed by significant EU resources for sustainable and inclusive growth.
Steady Growth Ahead
According to the latest OECD projections (OECD Economic Outlook 117, June 2025), the Greek economy is entering a phase of consistent but moderate expansion, characterized by the following key indicators:
– The country’s GDP is set to grow by 2% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026, which, while lower than post-pandemic levels, is impacted by broader European trends. The OECD anticipates continued, albeit slowing, growth in private consumption (1.2% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026), with public expenditure remaining limited.
– Government debt is trending downward but remains high at 155.9% of GDP in 2026, necessitating prudent fiscal policies and ongoing reform, particularly in spending and taxation. The OECD predicts slight deficits for the general government in the coming years (0.2% of GDP), emphasizing the need for balanced, socially responsible budgets.
– Investment activity is anticipated to grow considerably, with gross fixed investment increasing by 9.3% in 2025 and 8.1% in 2026, primarily driven by capital from the Recovery Fund. This is crucial for modernizing the production model, although sustaining this investment post-EU support is a concern.
– Unemployment is projected to decrease, reaching 9.2% in 2025 and 9.1% in 2026, down from 10.1% in 2023.
– Inflation (CPI) is expected to stabilize around 2.5% in 2025 and 2% in 2026, returning to healthier levels after the pressures of recent years.
– The current account is forecasted to remain in deficit (approximately -5% of GDP by 2026), despite a rise in exports, highlighting the need to enhance both external relations and domestic production capabilities.
Need for Reforms
The OECD’s forecasts indicate that the Greek economy has emerged from its crisis phase, but the goal of sustained growth has yet to be fully achieved. The OECD advises implementing structural reforms in the business sector, targeted investments in production and workforce skills, and careful fiscal management to protect the country’s interests and ensure future prosperity.
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