Nestled deep within a mountainside, the Fordo nuclear plant in Iran continues to operate, housing hundreds of uranium-enriching centrifuges. Israel contends that this facility is at the heart of Iran’s nuclear weapons program, although Tehran firmly denies any such intentions.
Fortified by tons of rock and earth, the plant presents a formidable challenge for modern airstrikes. However, following recent Israeli attacks that significantly damaged parts of Iran’s air defenses, scrutiny has shifted back to Fordo.
The only Iranian uranium facility near bomb-grade thresholds
Fordo is one of three critical sites within Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, alongside Natanz and Isfahan. Constructed in secrecy in 2006 and officially revealed in 2009, it currently operates over 1,000 centrifuges. Alarmingly, uranium particles enriched to 83.7% purity were discovered there in 2023—disturbingly close to the 90% threshold necessary for nuclear weaponry.
A June 2024 report from the Washington Post indicated that Iran is expanding Fordo, planning to install nearly 1,400 additional centrifuges at the site.
Will Israel launch an attack on Fordo?
Eliminating Iran’s nuclear capabilities has long been a key strategic objective for Israel. Dr. Alexander Bollfrass from the International Institute for Strategic Studies states, “the critical piece still resides at Fordo.” Nevertheless, any potential strike is operationally challenging.
While diplomatic solutions might be favored to prevent military escalation, Israel is contemplating all options.
The “bunker buster bombs” and the technical hurdles
The use of “bunker busters”—bombs designed to penetrate the earth and detonate at depth—is under consideration. Israel deployed such bombs in a raid that killed Hassan Nasrallah in September 2024, who was located only 10-15 meters underground. In contrast, Fordo is situated approximately 80 meters below the surface.
According to former Air Force officer Martin Sampson, “it would require a vast number of aircraft and multiple strikes,” rendering the operation nearly impossible without U.S. support.
The U.S. possesses the GBU-57 super-bomb, which can reach greater depths, but even that may not suffice for a single assault.
From sabotage to direct action: Israel’s alternative strategies
Israeli officials suggest that they might consider options beyond airstrikes. Ex-Mossad chief Zohar Pali stated, “we know how to handle situations independently.”
Israel’s ambassador to the U.S., Yechiel Leiter, recently mentioned that his country has “a range of contingencies” for addressing the Fordo facility, hinting at potential special operations or electronic sabotage.
A similar tactic is believed to have occurred in 2021 at Natanz, where a power outage reportedly incapacitated thousands of centrifuges while leaving the facility intact.
Fordo at the center of a perilous equation
As tensions escalate and Israel’s military remains on high alert, Fordo has become emblematic of the technological advancements and strategic dilemmas posed by Iran’s nuclear ambitions. The decisions surrounding this facility could profoundly influence not only the fate of Iran’s centrifuges but also the geopolitical balance throughout the Middle East.
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