Turkey’s increasing military presence in Syria and its efforts to establish bases and control crucial infrastructure have ignited a new confrontation between Ankara and Tel Aviv.
According to an analysis by The Economist, Turkish military officials have been visiting various air bases in Syria over the past few weeks, working on plans to equip at least some of these facilities with air defense systems and armed drones.
Reports indicate that preparations are underway for Turkey to seize the T4 airbase near Palmyra.
In early April, the Israeli Air Force conducted coordinated strikes on military bases in Syria, including T4, demonstrating Israel’s intent to thwart any Turkish advances.
The remarks from Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar and Defense Minister Israel Katz were quite revealing: they expressed concerns that Syria could become a Turkish protectorate, warning that any cooperation from Damascus with forces hostile to Israel would lead to significant repercussions.
Central to this conflict is Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ambition to position Ankara as a key player in Syrian affairs and extend its influence by backing interim President Ahmed al-Saraa.
Israel regards Sharaa, labeled a “jihadist of the al-Qaeda school,” with skepticism, as he claims to be working to prevent Syria from turning into a sanctuary for foreign extremists.
Under Benjamin Netanyahu’s leadership, Israel fears that this is merely a façade for plans to host Hamas and other radical factions.
The dispute also encompasses issues of internal governance: Ankara and al-Saraa favor a centralized presidential system, whereas Israel advocates for a federal structure in Syria that would grant autonomy to minority groups like the Kurds and Alawites. The recent atrocities committed against Alawites by armed groups loyal to Sharaa amplify apprehensions about the future of minorities in Syria.
The Kurdish situation is a significant trigger in this tension. Ankara accuses Israel of bolstering Kurdish forces (SDF), which it links to the PKK, fearing that Tel Aviv aims to establish a pro-Israeli Kurdish territory along Turkey’s southern border. Former Foreign Minister Saar has characterized the Kurds as “natural allies of Israel,” further fueling Turkey’s suspicions about destabilizing collaborations.
The anxiety over a potential “Kurdish protectorate” has prompted covert discussions between Ankara and imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan, leading to a temporary ceasefire declared last March. Conversely, Israel assesses that Ankara might utilize Syria as a “geopolitical battering ram” against the Jewish state.
Despite these heightened tensions, a direct military clash between the two nations is deemed unlikely. Erdogan is keen to restore ties with the US—especially reviving the F-35 program—and gradually normalize relations with the EU through collaborative efforts on Ukraine and fostering regional stability. A direct conflict with Israel would jeopardize these objectives.
Simultaneously, Turkey and Israel share a mutual interest in preventing Iran from re-establishing a foothold in Syria. Their common opposition to Iranian influence, alongside the necessity of stabilizing Syria, creates a potential foundation for cooperation.
An Israeli official remarked, “If Erdogan can stabilize Syria and thwart the emergence of a jihadist state, this could align with our interests as well.”
However, given the fragile balance in the region, Syria has transformed into not just a ground for reconstruction, but also a chessboard for geopolitical rivalry, with Erdogan and Netanyahu clearly positioned as adversaries.
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