The countdown is on as Tehran faces a two-week ultimatum from US President Donald Trump. The White House, Brussels, and the Middle East are intensifying their efforts in response to the potential direct involvement of US armed forces in a previously regional conflict.
While some analysts interpret Trump’s message to Iran as uncertain, suggesting hesitation about the US’s “return” to the Middle East post-Afghanistan withdrawal, it’s clear that American firepower in the Eastern Mediterranean is substantial.
Currently, three US Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, which excel in anti-aircraft and anti-ballistic defense, are patrolling the area, alongside the USS Carl Vinson carrier battle group already positioned in the Arabian Sea.
Simultaneously, the USS Nimitz carrier battle group is making its way from the western Pacific to the Middle East. In the interim, refueling tankers, fighter jets, and transport aircraft are on high alert to support Israel’s air defense.
Two Potential Scenarios
Analysis suggests two primary scenarios could unfold if the US opts for direct involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict, differentiated by the level of military engagement.
A more measured approach, supported by the MAGA base favoring limited engagement, would see US forces primarily aiding Israel in air defense operations.
In this scenario, US naval assets in the Mediterranean would play a crucial role in bolstering Israel’s anti-aircraft systems, along with supplying spare parts and munitions for Israeli aircraft.
The US has already stationed F-16, F-22, and F-35 jets, as well as air refueling aircraft, in the region, and has relocated bombers to its base in Diego Garcia, capable of targeting nuclear facilities.
Despite US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegsketh asserting the goal is to enhance deterrent capabilities, direct military involvement remains a possibility. President Trump is reported to be “deeply cautious” regarding direct engagement, due to concerns over rapid global escalation.
The urgency to eliminate Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, particularly at the fortified Fordo facility, suggests that US military capabilities could be pivotal for such operations, potentially employing GBU-57A/B (Guided Bomb Unit) bombs.
Preemptive Measures at Souda
European leaders are striving for a diplomatic resolution while implementing preemptive actions in regions of Israeli concern, as evidenced by measures taken by France and Germany.
Concurrently, the Pentagon is enacting precautionary measures to safeguard military sites nationwide against possible escalation, with Souda considered among key military interests.
Additionally, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis has clearly stated that there is “no basis” for claims regarding the Souda base’s involvement in any Middle East conflict.
“I will not comment on military deliberations regarding varying scenarios for contingencies. I categorically deny any such prospects are on the table,” he affirmed.
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