Amid rising uncertainties, international energy markets are closely monitoring escalating threats to the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping and energy corridor globally.
Any disruption or limitation of shipping in this area could trigger a surge in oil and LNG prices, which would have immediate repercussions for Greece’s fuel and electricity markets.
Daily, about 20 million barrels of crude oil and 20% of LNG transit through the Strait of Hormuz. If Iran succeeds in blocking access for large tankers, the repercussions on fuel prices could be severe, impacting international energy costs.
The TTF gas price now reflects a geopolitical risk premium, having risen above 40 euros per MWh in just a few days. Analysts warn of further increases if tensions escalate in the Strait of Hormuz.
On June 20, Brent crude closed at $77 a barrel, approaching the $80 mark. Meanwhile, the wholesale electricity price surged by 56.74% to 91.62 euros per MWh on June 23, up from an average of 81.94 euros in May, intensifying the strain on energy suppliers.
Currently, there is a discernible disparity in energy prices between Southeast and Central European countries. For instance, prices in the French market stand at 26.8 EUR/MWh, while in Germany it’s 38.74 EUR/MWh, and in Belgium it’s 38.36 EUR/MWh. In contrast, Greece’s price is at 92.18 euros, with Romania and Bulgaria at 97.18, Hungary at 94.89, and soaring prices in Southern Europe—Italy at 138.16 euros/MWh and Spain and Portugal at 110.56 euros/MWh.
Environment and Energy Minister Stavros Papastavrou highlighted the emergence of an “energy divide” threatening EU cohesion, noting that this issue is now being formally addressed at the Council of Ministers level with a task force expected to convene by month’s end.
Rising Tariffs
As we approach the end of June, energy providers are adjusting electricity tariffs for the upcoming month due to increasing prices in the wholesale market and uncertainties from international factors. Households with variable tariffs will bear the brunt of these fluctuations, while those with fixed tariffs need not be concerned.
International price hikes are already noticeable at gas stations, with the costs for unleaded and diesel already rising, and forecasts indicate further increases shortly.
Since hostilities began, prices have risen—18 euros per cubic meter for petrol and 36 euros for diesel. Current estimates suggest petrol may increase by 1.4 cents per liter and diesel by about 3 cents per liter due to recent turbulent developments.
Industry executives warn that if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, oil prices could skyrocket, potentially reaching $130 a barrel under JPMorgan’s worst-case scenario—an outcome that would significantly impact Iran, which exports 4 million barrels daily, with 3.5 million going to China.
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