Experts suggest that Iran’s current state of “paralysis” following the extensive Israeli attack on its nuclear facilities is unlikely to be long-lasting. Analysts caution that Tehran is poised to retaliate swiftly, having reached a critical threshold with Israel’s actions.
“While Iran’s leadership may be temporarily disoriented, this paralysis won’t endure,” noted Shina Toussi, a senior research fellow at the Center for International Politics, in a statement to CNN. He warned that a “significant retaliation, potentially involving drones and missiles targeting Israeli territory, appears imminent.”
Toussi further indicated that rather than debilitating Iran’s military and nuclear capabilities, Israel’s escalation could inadvertently bolster nationalist sentiments, enhance internal unity, and provoke a dangerous cycle of retaliation, which might also increase the likelihood of U.S. involvement.
According to Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute in Washington, Iran’s forthcoming response is anticipated to exceed that of the previous October attack, where Iranian missiles struck Israeli military sites. He emphasized, “It would be challenging for Iran to refrain from retaliation,” though he noted the timeline for Tehran’s recovery from the Israeli strikes remains uncertain.
Parsi also commented on the Israeli attack, asserting that Israel “sought to dismantle key parameters dictating the use of force and international law, thrusting the regional situation into a state where only the law of the jungle prevails.”
Sina Tusi pointed out that former President Donald Trump had previously cautioned Israel against launching such strikes, adding, “Whether this was a strategic maneuver or genuine containment is now beside the point. The threshold has been crossed,” Toussi remarked.
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