The first diplomatic meeting between Russia and Ukraine since 2022 is reportedly set to occur in Istanbul, spurred by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and U.S. diplomatic efforts, despite numerous challenges.
However, it’s unlikely that this meeting will last longer than the previous efforts of 2022. The central point of contention remains whether Russia will accept the U.S. proposal for a 30-day ceasefire without conditions, an offer that has been on the table for some time.
Given the outcome of the initial meeting in Istanbul in spring 2022, optimism for successful results from this session seems unwarranted. If Moscow perceives this meeting as a continuation of the first, with the same participants, a stalemate appears to be the most probable outcome.
Initially, Russia’s demands included the removal of Ukrainian President Zelensky from Kyiv and unconditional surrender by Ukraine. In response, Ukraine rejected these demands and successfully pushed Russian forces out of the Kyiv suburbs, significantly countering them in the south. This led to a communication freeze between Kyiv and Moscow, especially as Ukrainian forces encountered the horrific aftermath of atrocities committed in Bucha and Irpin.
If this upcoming meeting reverts to the same deadlock, it would mark the third consecutive attempt by the U.S. to bridge the substantial divide between Ukraine and Russia, ultimately leading to fruitless outcomes. Moreover, if Russia’s demands remain unchanged, it will be evident that Moscow has consistently preferred a deadlock over diplomacy.
After Biden assumed the presidency, the terms of negotiation shifted significantly, favoring Russia. The pressure on Putin diminished while that on Zelensky and Ukraine increased unevenly. With these new dynamics, Russia gained substantial diplomatic leverage, thereby altering the balance of power. Moscow’s recent maneuvers and its clear resistance to U.S. peace initiatives may soon prompt a different response from Washington—something both Kyiv and Europe have been anticipating.
During his recent three-day visit to the Arabian Peninsula, Donald Trump remarked on Russia’s “hide and seek” tactics, implying that nothing could progress without his direct involvement. Stripped of the grandiosity of his statements, Trump seems to be setting a pressing timeline regarding the Ukraine war.
Trump will soon face difficult decisions, particularly regarding the only substantial threat he has made against Russia: imposing strict sanctions on Moscow’s energy resources. Given his track record since January 20, one might think this unlikely, yet if he senses that attention is diverting away from him to other figures, he may decide to take action once more.
Conclusion
Currently, the pace and nature of negotiations concerning the resolution of the war are beyond the control of the U.S., Europe, or Ukraine. Even with mediators like Turkey involved, the situation is unlikely to change, and even potential involvement from Beijing may not further the dialogue beyond vague positive sentiments about a ceasefire.
Moscow has laid out a clear roadmap, willing to proceed as long as the costs are lower than the potential benefits.
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