This year’s NATO Summit in The Hague, the Netherlands, marks a departure from previous gatherings. Due to Donald Trump‘s reluctance to engage in extended discussions, the agenda has been tailored to minimize his time in the plenary session, emphasizing brevity in proceedings.
The Summit kicks off tonight with a dinner hosted by the Dutch royal couple at Huis Den Bosch Palace. The formal proceedings will commence tomorrow at approximately 11:00 a.m. ET and conclude by 3:00 p.m. ET. Notably, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, who arrived in The Hague this afternoon, has a subsequent schedule in Brussels tomorrow ahead of the EU Summit.
Trump’s presence in The Hague is anticipated, particularly as he aims to showcase a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran. However, recent bombings have complicated matters, prompting Trump to issue stern warnings to the involved parties. Ideally, he would emerge from the Summit with both a breakthrough in the Middle East and commitments from NATO allies to increase defense spending to 5% of their GDP in the coming years, though achieving this might require some financial creativity.
Amidst this, the war in Ukraine appears to be taking a backseat priority-wise. Volodymyr Zelensky, seeking an audience with Trump, is present in The Hague but will only attend tonight’s dinner, skipping tomorrow’s summit. There’s little indication that Trump is eager for further discussions with the Ukrainian president.
The 5% Target
Trump’s criticism of European nations’ low defense spending, articulated before the end of his first term, remains valid.
However, following the onset of the war in Ukraine, most NATO members have reached the 2% target. Trump continues to advocate for a 5% target, which the Dutch Prime Minister, Rutte, aims to implement, though likely only on paper.
Rutte’s proposal suggests a 5% spending increase over the coming years, but realistically, the goal is set at 3.5% for direct defense expenditures and 1.5% for security-related investments, including infrastructure and resilience. The timeline for fulfilling this commitment is potentially set for 2035, yet it remains under discussion among leaders. Notably, Spain has achieved an exemption from the guideline, while Belgium and Canada have expressed objections, making the debate over the adjustment timeline intriguing.
According to Greek government sources, Greece agrees with the secretary-general’s proposal, already allocating over 3% of its GDP to defense, placing it among the nations that exceed the current NATO commitment of 2%. Prime Minister Mitsotakis has unveiled a €28 billion defense program over the next 12 years. During the Leaders’ Summit, he will stress Greece’s steadfast commitment to its obligations despite economic challenges and emphasize the urgent necessity for Europeans to make smarter investments in collective defense to strengthen European security alongside NATO.
The “Wild Card” Erdogan
The presence of Tayyip Erdogan in The Hague introduces additional intrigue. According to US and Turkish sources, a meeting with Donald Trump is expected, following multiple phone conversations about the Middle East situation. Erdogan is eager for an invitation to the White House—something he has yet to receive from Biden—as well as discussions around lifting the CAATSA sanctions that hinder the acquisition of critical U.S. military supplies.
Conversely, Mitsotakis does not have a formal meeting with Erdogan scheduled, making the prospect of a High Cooperation Council in early July in Ankara unlikely. Furthermore, given recent geopolitical developments, such a meeting seems improbable. Nevertheless, Athens aims to maintain communication with Ankara, so a brief informal conversation between Mitsotakis and Erdogan during the summit could occur.
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